晶電再次訂購AIXG MOCVD 設備

我的看法

1. 晶電董事長在香港的訪問說，目前MOCVD的訂單要10個月以上才能交貨，也就是去年10月底的訂單在今年上半年可能仍在調整階段，對上半年的營收沒有幫助。進一步的說，上半年的季營收若要成長，我的判斷是產品的調整，相對於963Q or 4Q幅度可能不大。

2. 根據沛鑫的說法，它目前出貨到大陸LED路燈的量約有100K，以一盞NTD1.5萬，產值只有15億元，最多到50億台幣吧。

3.公司募得的72億元，有25.9億先存入債券基金顯示這部份的資金短期不會支用。但是在訂購新聞的前幾天取回3.5億的現金，是有大筆的支用需求嗎？或者只是一般的財務操作？

4. 若 KGI 訂購MOCVD 設備數量為真，以高階MOCVD 設備 6000萬到1億來看，這一部分的資本支出約15億到20億左右。3.5億的數字接近15~20%不知道是不是符合設備商的付款慣例。這個部份可能要看96年報與971Q的財報才比較清楚了。

5.接下來，我的觀察重點會在3，4月的營收狀況，可不可以回到10億。

參考資訊

新聞稿
Epistar Increases LED Capacity Again with More AIXTRON MOCVD Tools

AACHEN, Germany--(BUSINESS WIRE)--AIXTRON AG is pleased to announce a third multiple order, received in the fourth quarter 2007 from Epistar, one of the world's leading manufacturers of Ultra-High-Brightness (UHB) LEDs. The latest order again includes both multiple CRIUS(TM) Close Coupled Showerhead(TM) (CCS) reactors as well as AIX 2800G4 HT Planetary Reactor(TM) systems which are AIXTRON's flagship products for large scale GaN-based LED manufacturing.

To be delivered later this year, the high capacity MOCVD reactors are required for Epistar's ongoing expansion of LED production capacity. Together with the multiple order announced in October, 2007, Epistar was the single largest individual system investor in Q4 and continues to set the pace for investment in LED technology.

Dr. Ming-Jiunn Jou, Executive Vice President, Epistar comments: 'Once again Epistar is favoring AIXTRON Group MOCVD process technology and equipment for the next stage in planning for production capacity expansion. Our two companies have worked together for over a decade in perfecting the application of MOCVD to the challenges of manufacturing high volume, cost competitive UHB LEDs. To date these reactors have proven well up to the task thanks to excellent uniformity, efficient precursor utilization and other key features. We are now preparing for the installation and rapid commissioning of the new machines with the help of the customary AIXTRON local support and service to meet market demand.'

Epistar was the launch customer for the AIX 2800G4 HT and CRIUS(TM) systems, the world's highest capacity proven reactors for GaN LED production.

Epistar is a leading manufacturer of UHB LEDs for applications such as cellular phones, automotive lighting, full color screens and displays, traffic signals and indicators for electronic equipment; Epistar's high speed LEDs are also used as lighting sources in the fiber-optics industry.


證券商報告

KGI 提到

• Blue light LED monthly capacity will increase to 1.1bn units from 800m by the end of 2007 when it completes additional 20 MOCVD installation in 1H08.
• According to Foxconn Semicon, the most conservative street-light lamp shipment to China will be 100k in 2008. However, the optimistic estimate is up to 300k in 2008 for Foxconn Semicon.
  

公司公告摘要

1. 96/12/06 取得債券型基金，兆豐國際寶鑽 500,000仟元。
2. 96/12/06 取得債券型基金，安泰ING債券基金 500,000仟元。
3. 96/12/06 取得債券型基金，統一強棒債券基金 300,000仟元。
4. 96/12/07 取得債券型基金，華南永昌鳳翔債券基金 300,000仟元。
5. 96/12/07 取得債券型基金，台灣工銀大眾債券基金 320,000仟元。
6. 96/12/12 取得債券型基金，台灣工銀5599債券基金 320,000仟元。
7. 96/12/19 取得債券型基金，復華債券基金 350,000仟元。
8. 97/01/04 處分債券型基金，建弘台灣債券基金新台幣350,000仟元。