2009年3月13日 星期五

LED 背光電視投票結果 7% 願意購買--7% Vistors Are Willing to Buy a Samsung LED Backlite TV!

2009年的1月LED產業觀察,我發起了一項投票,問到訪這個部落格的網友,是否願意購買1台價格60,000台幣的三星LED背光電視。這項投票從2/27~3/6止,由Google Aanalytics的統計數據,這段期間總共有1397位不重複的訪客,其中有196位網友參與這一次的投票,14位願意購買,186位不願意。

投票的結果,總共有7%的網友願意購買。這還真是令我意外,因為之前三星自身的目標即是在2009年賣出的LCD電視中,有10%為LED背光電視。從這一次的投票結果來看,這樣的目標似乎是可能達到的。

不過除了這一次的投票以外,我們再來看一些數據。(所有資料引用自STPI科技產業資訊室)

由這一篇報導來看,美國的液晶電視在2009年的預計銷售量低標是107.5KK台,又以這一篇報導來看,三星在2008年的美國市場佔有率是18.7%,而我預期仍會持續成長,也就是可以到高標20%左右。

再根據Displaybank所做的北美液晶電視銷售調查,1月份北美暢銷電視中84%為液晶電視,60%以上為超高畫質(Full-HD) 規格。但是我認為Full-HD的比率仍會往上升,所以預估到80%左右。

所以我推測三星在美國的LED背光電視銷售量的預估是
107.5KK * 20% * 80% * 10% = 1.72 KK

如此亮麗的數字背後,其實仍有隱憂,首先是第一個數字,美國的消費市場緊縮的同時,液晶電視的成長是否會如市調機構評估的,仍有15%的成長?再來第四個數字,LED背光電視真能站到Full-HD電視銷售量的10%?第四個數字至為關鍵,只要少個1%就會造成數字少10%。

暫且還是把2009年的高標設成 200萬台,乘以6萬的售價,整個產值大概可以到1200億台幣左右,雖然產值這麼大,但是LED產業可以從中取得多少的營業額呢?會是120億台幣嗎?等我進一步查到LED背光模組電視的成本分析表(誰有「ET電子技術272期-背光模組薄型化技術動向」的影像檔啊??)再來算。真要能有120億台幣,那麼只提供LED晶粒的第n供應商晶電會有多少的營收進帳?真能樂觀的看待LED背光電視的錢途?

我個人認為,如果LED背光的液晶電視可以在2009年的購物季價格下殺,殺很大,突破1,000美元的心理關卡的話,說不定銷售量會再大幅度的增加,甚至超過10%。把這一點記下來,我會在2009年底再為大家作一次價格調查。

以上。

22 則留言:

trifire 提到...

三星主管出來喊話了,預計全球可以賣到300萬台,難怪要找LED晶粒來源。不過真的可以到300萬,北美要賣多少台,其中會有多少是三星的呢啊??

看來我的170萬應該是三星至少要突破的量。

看好的人,可以考慮買進TG或是PHG!

http://tw.stock.yahoo.com/news_content/url/d/a/090318/3/1ee70.html

三星還證實,為加強LED電視事業,將在國內及海外市場推出40吋、46吋和55吋LED電視。Yoon Boo-keun指出:「全球平面電視的市場,已轉移到更高品質的電視……有了新產品後,我們想打造新的市場。」他預期全球LED電視的需求將達到300萬台左右。

trifire 提到...

三星表示 在前六週已經鋪出20萬台 LED TV 到經銷商。

http://www.reuters.com/article/technologyNews/idUSTRE54H15B20090518

A spokeswoman for the company, which has been cautious about the outlook for all its businesses, said Samsung is maintaining its sales target for LCD TV sets set in 2009 at 22 million, up 10 percent from 2008.

That target is below DisplaySearch's forecast of a 15 percent growth in the global LCD TV market, but Samsung will strive to post higher growth and expand market share, according to Shim.

him declined to give sales targets for the LED TV segment, but said Samsung had shipped 200,000 units to retailers in the six weeks since the first models were launched in March.

DisplaySearch expects LED TV sales to reach 32.4 million units in 2015, up from estimates of 2 million in 2009 and 7.3 million in 2010, according to Samsung.

A major obstacle for widespread adoption of LED sets is however the price premium, which can be as much as $700 over a traditional LCD model of the same size.

trifire 提到...

三星誤導消費者? LED TV is actually an LED-backlit LCD TV

http://www.displaysearchblog.com/2009/05/has-samsung-given-up-on-lcd-tv/

As she (Samsung rep) opened her sales binder with talking points to show me “LED TV,” she mentioned that she had heard there were LCD TVs out there that were LED backlit as I described, but that was not the case with these Samsung models.

trifire 提到...

拓墣估計 LED TV 約佔 2% of 120 M TV set。也就是說大概 240 萬左右。

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2009/05/21/2003444175

But LED TVs should only make up 2 percent of a total of 120.8 million LCD TV sets sold this year, she said.

trifire 提到...

感覺到目前為止,對LED TV評論與介紹最中肯的報導。Digitimes, 台灣的記者,加油。

http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/biz/2009/05/123_44357.html

LED TVs are divided into two types in terms of operating system ― edge-lit-based and direct-lit-based.

The strength of Samsung's PAVV-branded LED TV series, based on edge-lit-based technology, is in its slim, light-weight design ― a key point for Samsung's LED TV marketing, with LED bulbs located on the sides of a panel.

Whereas, LG's direct-lit-based LED TV series is better for providing enhanced picture quality, with LED bulbs located on the back of the panel, which can easily control color and lightness with a visual controlling technology called "local dimming."

"It's groundless that 'direct-lit-based' technology has strength in picture quality. LG hasn't solved technology problems, such as the twist of the panel caused by heat generated during operation," a Samsung spokesman said, Tuesday.

"LED-based LCD TVs by both Samsung and LG are still expensive. Fluctuating backlight and a lack of uniformity are still big problems," a high-ranking Samsung executive told The Korea Times.

Kwon said the two Korean TV makers are taking different approaches in the design of next-generation of TVs ― with Samsung emphasizing size while LG focuses on quality.

Samsung, which is set to raise its LED TV portion by double digits in this year's total TV sales, will release additional new packages of 240 hertz-based LED TVs this month.

LG plans to introduce much slimmer, direct-lit-based televisions at affordable prices, according to the company spokesman.

"Price doesn't really matter. Samsung and LG can each provide advanced TVs at discounted prices to consumers as a part of its marketing campaign. What matters is technology," said Song Hae-won, a 30-year-old shop owner at a large electronics outlet.

trifire 提到...

巴黎證預估LED TV滲透率1.4%,比較少喔。

http://www.funddj.com/KMDJ/News/NewsViewer.aspx?a=ec77712c-b425-44eb-8081-c8a7deec0f87

背光源方面,巴黎證券預估,今年NB全球LED背光機種滲透率將達45%,LED TV滲透率將達1.4%

trifire 提到...

英國消費者雜誌的評比以綠色的比率來看,Sony 40 in HCFL TV 勝出

http://www.dintz.com/techradar-choice-6-green-tvs-thatll-save-you-money-the-planet/

Panasonic TX-P46G10 - £1,250
Samsung UE-46B8000 - £2,000
Sharp LC-46DH77E - £1,000
Sony KDL-40WE5 - £1,319
JVC LT-42DV1 - £1,250
LG 42LH5000 - £1,050

trifire 提到...

Toshiba 加入 LED TV 戰局。

http://blogs.zdnet.com/home-theater/?p=1001
http://computerfinance.net/toshibas-first-led-lcd-hdtvs-the-regza-xv648-zv650-sv670-hdtvs/

Available in 46-inch and 55-inch flavors, the 670 series is notable for its FocaLight technology, which Toshiba claims gives the sets “superior local dimming,” as well as new backlight scanning technology that is combined with 240Hz refresh rates to improve playback of fast-moving action.

While Vizio is offering its 55-inch LED set for $2,199.99, Toshiba’s equivalently sized screen costs $2,999.99. It’s the 46-inch Regza that has a closer price to Vizio’s model: $2,299.99.

Pricing and Availability:

REGZA XV648 Cinema Series LCD TV Series
40XV648U (available August 2009, MSRP $1,099.99)
46XV648U (available August 2009, MSRP $1,499.99)
52XV648U (available August 2009, MSRP $1,999.99)

REGZA ZV650 LCD TV Series
42ZV650U (available June 2009, MSRP $1,299.99)
47ZV650U (available June 2009, MSRP $1,699.99)
55ZV650U (available June 2009, MSRP $2,399.99)

REGZA SV670 Cinema Series LED TV Series
46SV670U (available June 2009, MSRP $2,299.99)
55SV670U (available June 2009, MSRP $2,999.99)

trifire 提到...

三星在 澳洲 推出 Bonus TV 促銷活動。只要消費者買高階的 TV 即贈送一台價值 AUD $699 的 22 吋 LCD TV。

從 Google Products 找
UN40B6000 約 US 1600
UN22B460 約 US 340
也就是說打 85 折促銷 ...

活動網址
http://samsung.promotionscampaign.com.au/bonustv/index.cfm

trifire 提到...

BestBuy LED TV 促銷活動。

http://news.punchjump.com/article.php?id=8136

In the offer, customers can purchase the $1799 Samsung 40" Class UN40B6000 LED HDTV with the $299 Samsung 1080p Blu-ray disc player for $1849.97, or the $2099.99 Samsung 46" Class UN46B6000 LED HDTV with the $299 Samsung 1080p Blu-ray disc player for $2149.97.

trifire 提到...

LED 背光電視的介紹
介紹了傳統式與三星 LED TV 的差距。

http://www.cnet.com.au/led-vs-lcd-which-is-better-339295938.htm

trifire 提到...

Sharp 2009 年 LED TV。文章說不像日本賣的有 Local Dimming,這幾款好像沒有賣點。

http://www.crunchgear.com/2009/07/07/new-sharp-led-backlit-le700-tvs-not-fancy-enough/

* The LC-52LE700UN: $2,799.99
* The LC-46LE700UN: $2,199.99
* The LC-40LE700UN: $1,699.99
* The LC-32LE700UN: $1,099.99

trifire 提到...

哎呀,有一點錯估形勢。

http://tw.myblog.yahoo.com/jw!jMamgB2GGRoAacEF7YxNwGU-/article?mid=8090

平面電視 業績火熱

市調業者ISuppli公司分析師培托說:「消費者逐漸把家當做娛樂場所,電視變成主要媒介。許多人認為,與其夏天出門度假,不如買台電視、待在家裡。」

41歲的魯貝卡巴說:「現在是6月,以往我們全家人可能已經坐船出遊三、四趟了,今年卻一趟也沒去。」但他很想買一台新電視,正在考慮百思買(Best Buy)展售的三星55 吋LCD平面電視,目前特價2,700美元。雖然電視是高檔消費,但魯貝卡巴認為,省掉別的開銷後,買電視長期來看還是划算。

根據ISuppli的資料,美加兩國今年頭三個月進口的新平面電視,比去年同期大增17.3%至780萬台,32吋或更小的電視4月起已開始缺貨。

培托說,消費者傾向選擇較便宜的機種和廉價品牌,1,000美元以下的電視賣得特別好。

trifire 提到...

三星表示 在 100 天內,賣出50萬台LED 背光電視。

http://joongangdaily.joins.com/article/view.asp?aid=2906550

trifire 提到...

http://tw.stock.yahoo.com/news_content/url/d/a/090901/1/1nkl6.html

三星LED TV要求交貨倍增 東貝璨圓樂透

貝而言,據了解,3個月前(6月)供應三星LED TV的量單月約500到1000萬顆,第3季增加到3000萬顆,日前三星已要求倍增交貨,拉高到6000萬顆。

trifire 提到...

iSuppli 的 LCD TV 市場數字。LED TV 約佔 09Q2 2.2% 的出貨量,約15.1萬台。 怎麼這麼少 !!... 三星全球不是賣了快50萬台??

http://www.isuppli.com/News/Pages/Samsung-Cuts-Into-Vizio-s-Lead-in-U-S-LCD-TV-Market-in-Second-Quarter.aspx

"U.S. consumers increasingly are warming up to higher-specification LCD-TV models, including those using new LED-backlighting technology,” Patel added. "iSuppli estimates 2.2 percent of LCD-TVs shipped in the U.S. in the second quarter used LED backlights, up from zero during the same quarter a year earlier.

Global penetration of the LED-backlight technology for LCD-TV panels will increase to 37 percent of all shipments in 2013, up from 3 percent in 2009, iSuppli predicts.

trifire 提到...

比較幾個月的銷數售字,好像三星在上市創 50 萬台以後,每月再賣 10 萬台,以這個速度來說 ... 今年得到 150 萬台的量嗎 ?

http://www.udn.com/2009/9/3/NEWS/FINANCE/BREAKINGNEWS6/5116011.shtml

三星熱炒LED電視商機議題,宣布到7月為止,全球銷售量已經突破70萬台

trifire 提到...

數字參考一下,晶電李董認為低標是1500萬台。

http://tech.chinatimes.com/2007Cti/2007Cti-News/Inc/2007cti-news-Tech-inc/Tech-Content/0,4703,12050902+122009112600404,00.html

吳春發相當看好LED TV的成長性,2009年到2010年LED TV會有3倍成長,2009年LED TV出貨預估409.8萬台,到了2010年出貨量將倍數成長到1,818萬台。市場滲透率更是快速躍升,明年估計LED TV市場滲透率約14.5%,2011年提高到32.6%,到2012年時,LED TV的滲透率將突破50%。

trifire 提到...

太可怕了 喊到 4500 萬台 LED TV了。億光有螢幕的出海口嗎??

ttp://news.chinatimes.com/2007Cti/2007Cti-Rtn/2007Cti-Rtn-Content/0,4526,110103+112009121800882,00.html

LED TV明年進入起飛期,億光經過近一年低調佈局,效益開始顯現,億光生產事業群總經理劉邦言表示,公司LED TV產品已自12月開始出貨,明年可望高度成長,以明年LED TV滲透率(含21吋以上Monitor尺寸的TV)約15%來估算,明年全球LED TV銷售量約4500萬台,而億光將以搶下市佔率20%為目標,預估明年出貨量將上看900萬台。

,根據市調機構預估,明年LED TV全球銷售量將達2000萬到2500萬台,若加上21吋以上Monitor尺寸的TV,預估全球銷售量將達4500萬台,滲透率達15%,億光挾技術及擁有足夠晶粒優勢,成為最大受惠者。

trifire 提到...

我個人認為明年的這個時候 LED TV 的滲透率會超過這個預估。

http://tw.stock.yahoo.com/news_content/url/d/a/101101/3/2afuk.html

產業分析》明年「錢景」產業?滕光中、海英俊一致看好LED TV(2-1)

LEDinside預估,2011年LED TV市場規模將達9200萬台,較2010年成長將近3倍,其中以側光式LED背光液晶電視的成長潛力最大。

光寶滕光表示今年預估LED TV滲透率約20%,而明年可望大幅成長,預估32吋以上的LED TV滲透率可望達50%,突破8000萬台,42吋以上的LED TV滲透率更可達85%,躍升為明年主力機種。

trifire 提到...

http://udn.com/NEWS/STOCK/STO3/5980642.shtml

東貝:明年營收躍增70%

【經濟日報╱記者詹惠珠/台北報導】

三星從7月開始暫緩LED背光電視零組件的拉貨,開始消化冷陰極管(CCFL)庫存電視,造成LED封裝廠營收從7月起陸續下滑。不過三星的電視新機種12月開始試產,明年元月量產,3月開始在市面上鋪貨。

東貝董事長吳慶輝昨(17)日表示,根據日、韓主要電視廠來看,明年將有六成的機種,都會以LED作背光源,明年32吋以上的電視,將有7,000萬到8,000萬台使用LED作為背光源

trifire 提到...

所以先前我預測 2011 的LED monitor/TV 滲透率 會超過 先前 LED 廠商的預測

http://news.chinatimes.com/tech/12050905/122011011900428.html

液晶顯示器廠ViewSonic(美商優派)2011年將旗下Monitor、電視全面轉成LED背光源,優派亞太區行銷企畫處協理劉仲宏指出,預估全球LED背光源Monitor滲透率,從2010年17%大幅成長至50%

LED與CCFL的價差方面,低階18.5吋產品價差約僅500元,整體而言價差約在5-20%之間,隨著LED背光成本持續下降,預估到2012年LED和CCFL背光機種價差將趨於相近。