2008年10月23日 星期四

9月LED 產業觀察 -- 延後的MO訂單與消失的股價

國外篇

2008SEP04 LED makers postpone expansion

從來沒有感覺到台灣媒體的力量,直到這一則的Digitimes新聞。由於Digitimes的新聞不在我的閱讀清單內,當一覺醒來,AIXTRON的ADR大跌11%後,才發現這一則新聞的影響力。

新聞中引述公司的內部人員說,由於LED整體產業景氣的下滑,晶電與燦圓將延後設備訂單的交付。

晶電原本計畫將於2008年6月擴充藍光LED產能,由2007年底的800KK顆近一步擴增到1300-1400KK顆,同時在超高亮度(ultra-high-brightness UHB)的LED也有相類似的擴充計畫。公司內部人員指出,擴充的腳步將延後一季,但是公司內部的人員並未說明UHB的擴充產量。

燦圓原本將於2008年底將450KK的產量擴增到600KK,但是公司方面已經因為客戶的保守展望而放慢擴充速度。公司內部人員指出該公司並且要求將延後MOCVD設備的交程一季。

目前燦圓有25台的MOCVD設備,去年則只有18台。就算燦圓延後MO設備的交程,該公司仍要求於2009年交貨,也就是說該公司仍會增加3-6台的MOCVD設備。

國內篇

看到國內兩大要求,延後裝機的新聞與過去一季的LED類股走勢,好像LED上游的好光景已過。但是參考AIXTRON的訂單新聞卻不是這樣的。從今年1月的晶電訂單以後,仍可以看到以下的亞洲訂單。

  • 2008MAY27 Ubilux(晶發) orders six Aixtron MOCVD systems for AlInGaP- and GaN-based UHB-LEDs
  • 2008JUN10 Genesis Photonics (新世紀光電)orders two Aixtron MOCVD tools
  • 2008JUL01 EpiLEDs (光鋐科技) orders further Aixtron CRIUS reactors
  • 2008JUL15 Changelight(廈門乾照光電) to ramp up LED with two Aixtron MOCVD tools
  • 2008JUL22 Forepi (燦圓光電) expands GaN UHB-LED production with order for multiple Aixtron systems
  • 2008AUG19 Walsin Lihwa (華新麗華)Invests in Aixtron CRIUS MOCVD Tool for GaN LED Market Debut
  • 2008SEP02 Century Epitech Corp.(深圳世紀晶源 ) boosts LED capacity with Aixtron MOCVD tools
  • 2008SEP09 SemiLEDs (旭明光電) aims for major ramp with latest Aixtron tool
  • 2008SEP23 High Power Opto (聯勝光電) to buy Aixtron MOCVD tool for GaN LED epiwafers

為什麼目前市況不好,仍有許多的上游業者搶進晶粒的製造?我認為要先去看到這一則這一則華上新聞。華上去年第3季AIXTRON完成兩台MOCVD設備的交貨,在第4季開始,該公司放出新聞,說明該公司已經有能力量產1400-1600 mcd的藍光晶粒,而這樣的規格的藍光晶粒,足可以供小型背光模組使用的白光LED所用,同時這樣的亮度使用在普通的照明用品,如手電筒也是相當夠用的。

為什麼以4元為主要製程的華上,可以在取得AIXTRON的MOCVD設備以後,快速的生產出高亮度的晶粒?我個人認為,AIXTRON的MOCVD設備所附的原始參數已經可以量產1400-1600 mcd亮度等級的藍光晶粒。華上的示範,讓其他的公司相當有信心的下單,而不怕沒有技術可以生產出高亮度等級的晶粒。

當然要產出更高亮度還是要進一步研發與調整參數,但是只要有其他一線公司工程師,不怕做不出來更高的亮度,這應該就是這一些台廠願意下單的原因,甚至連做電線的也進來插一腳。另外AIXTRON將於10/30公布第三季的財報與訂單數字,屏息以待。

13 則留言:

trifire 提到...

AIXTRON 高層接受 EETimes訪問。說明業界在消化去年開始以來出貨的MOCVD設備產能。2012/13年LED固態照明才能起飛。值得一讀。


http://www.eetimes.com/news/semi/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=210603262

MUNICH, Germany — The energy saving trend has led Aixtron's sales to record heights in Q4/2007. Now the manufacturer of LED production equipment sees a "digestion phase" during which the semiconductor market will absorb the production capacity built up over the past quarters. The breakthrough of LED in general lighting applications will not come before the years 2012/2013, predicts Aixtron investor relations manager Guido Pickert.

trifire 提到...

晶發準備安裝設備。

http://tw.stock.yahoo.com/news_content/url/d/a/081009/1/168e7.html

由力晶 (5346) 集團轉投資成立的晶發光電公司南科新廠,今天上午舉行落成謝土啟用儀式,由力晶集團董事長黃崇仁帶領晶發光電經營團隊主持。黃崇仁表示,雖然在經濟風暴的影響下,經營環境很困難,但對晶發光電一定能通過考驗,成為有競爭力的LED主要供應商。

黃崇仁表示,晶發光電新廠在今年一月十五日動土興建,今天就能落成啟用,他對經營團隊的效率很有信心;且南科園區的光電產業聚落完整,在這裏建 LED新廠也很適當。

晶發光電公司指出,南科新廠佔地二公頃,並保留一公頃土地供後期開發,第一期廠房樓地板面積一萬三千零七十六平方公尺,滿載產能的情況下,每年可創造超過新台幣三十億元的營業額。

trifire 提到...

不太清楚燦圓在一個月內會有這樣的落差。是電子時報在耍寶嗎?

http://www.compoundsemi.com/documents/view/generic.php?id=10955

October 16, 2008... Formosa Epitaxy will be producing brighter LEDs soon. The company is expecting new MOCVD equipment to begin mass production of high power LEDs in the beginning of 2009, a Digitimes article reported. The company, which is an LED maker, recently settled a patent dispute with another Taiwan-based LED maker, Epistar. over a disputed indium tin oxide based technology used to increase the brightness of LEDs. Prior to the settlement, both Formosa Epitaxy and claimed to have a patent on the technology originally developed with Taiwan's government supported Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI). Formosa will reportedly be utilizing technology licensed from an unnamed U.S. LED company. Formosa plans to increase the brightness of its LEDs from 70-80lm/W to 80-92/lm/W, the article stated.

trifire 提到...

VECCO LED 設備訂單同步衰退

http://compoundsemiconductor.net/cws/article/business/36414

Orders for Veeco Instruments' solar and LED equipment fell by half between the second and third quarters of 2008 as system usage declined at some LED wafer manufacturers.

“While we expected some fall-off in orders due to the significant MOCVD capacity build-up in Taiwan, the decline was greater than originally anticipated,” commented CEO John Peeler.

This digestion situation last arose as recently as 2005, when Veeco's orders recovered within nine months, but Peeler accepts that things could be different this time.

trifire 提到...

AIXG 第三季成績迷人,但是也就只有這個第三季了。 (from google translate)

http://nachrichten.finanztreff.de/news_news,awert,ticker,bwert,dtl,id,28058314,sektion,uebersicht.html

We expect a solid Q3 due to the good order backlog in H1, "write the analysts at LBBW. Aixtron expect of any contract cancellations. They point out that Aixtron 132 million euros or 80% of orders in the first half even in the current fiscal year 2008 revenue effect . The LBBW estimated that none of them about half of the third quarter.

At the end of August had Aixtron-Chief Financial Officer Wolfgang Breme Dow Jones Newswires said that it is not expected before the second half of 2009, a boom in the area of Light Emitting Diode (LED) give. Derzeit befinde sich Aixtron wie auch die Branche in einem "zyklischen Abschwung". Currently Aixtron as well as the industry in a "cyclical downturn".

ledprincess 提到...

請問一下, 十號公報上路後, 對LED公司有影響嗎? 還有, 影響最大的會是甚麼? 應該要如何來辨識某一家公司會不會大幅度受到波及??

trifire 提到...

哇勒 ... 好像敦促我讀書一樣。我不是會計系的啦,好像問錯人了。

存貨的價值,公司不矇騙會計師或會計師不幫忙掩飾就阿彌佗佛了。電子業應該不會有很大的差別吧,尤其是存貨通常只有跌價的份。

另外就是將存貨的跌價損失列進銷貨成本內,會讓營業利益率比較真實。不過真的遇到金屬原物料上漲的情形,反而要將這一部分的獲利扣除。

另外請參考

http://140.116.51.3/files/會計師業務.ppt

http://blog.yam.com/shiang217/article/14300998

http://news.chinatimes.com/CMoney/News/News-Page/0,4442,content+120601+122008102700228,00.html

http://ai100.chihlee.edu.tw/front/bin/ptdetail.phtml?Part=news_97092301

trifire 提到...

有比較多AIXG 第三季營運的細節。

http://compoundsemiconductor.net/cws/article/fab/36485

Using Hyland's estimate that the average cost per MOCVD reactor is between $2 million and $2.4 million, and assuming a dollar/euro exchange rate of 1.5 over the past year, that would equate to shipment and payment for perhaps 150 reactors.

The notebook PC market is still expected to double to some 200 million units per year by 2012. LED backlights feature in no more than 15-20 per cent of notebooks at the moment, but that proportion is expected to grow to at least 50 per cent over the same time – even according to the most pessimistic outlook.

trifire 提到...

Showa Denko 昭和電工,日本四元晶粒的大供應商。在今年第三季的財報說明會說,LED的擴產將暫停,但是現在看來又開始move in ... 看來 AIXTRON 的 back order 降的超快。

http://www.semiconductor-today.com/news_items/2008/DEC/AIXTRON_181208.htm

Aixtron AG of Aachen, Germany says that, in third-quarter 2008, it delivered an AIX 2800G4 HT Planetary Reactor MOCVD system (its flagship product for large-scale GaN-based LED manufacturing) to Japan-based ultra-high-brightness (UHB) LED manufacturer Showa Denko K.K. Ordered in first-quarter 2008, the system is configured in 11x4-inch wafer configuration.

「Our existing AIX 2800G4HT Planetary Reactor system has been serving us very well and now we are ready to further scale up production, as announced last year,」 says a spokesman for Showa Denko. 「With the additional system, we will continue to achieve all our production targets.」

trifire 提到...

AIXG 對 顯示產品對 LED 產業的影響預估。取消訂單的是CMO, Samsung?

http://compoundsemiconductor.net/cws/article/news/39011

Profit was boosted by the sale of Aixtron's Aachen headquarters, and a “significant compensation” payment after one customer cancelled a system order after deciding to purchase, not make, LEDs.

“To give you some sense of the scale, if we just use round numbers, about 1 billion mobile phones are made a year and that probably consumes about 10 billion LEDs,” he said. “The number of LEDs for the TV market is probably going to be somewhere between six and eight times [that].”

trifire 提到...

原來 只要 5 月以後安裝的機台
都沒有產能貢獻啊 ...

http://wp168.wordpress.com/2009/11/24/晶電三星訂單-明年倍增/

李秉傑指出,上游磊晶廠大幅擴充產能,但設備裝機到量產需時半年,明年新增可貢獻產能的MOCVD磊晶機台估計僅150台,至於明年5月之後安裝的機台,對明年度的貢獻僅有一個月,因此明年出現供過於求的機率並不高。

匿名 提到...

版大 有一點粉好奇,有samsumg led tv
七月後銷售的數量 憑良心說 led tv在賣場根本賣不出去 至少在台灣拉 價格沒拉到跟
lcd差不多 報導三星只統計到七月底 接下來三爽就像打臉充胖子 只公布tv的銷售數字(total)然後煤體就自己爽明年會有機千萬台的銷售量 有實際的銷售數字ㄇ

trifire 提到...

ㄟ ... 我也沒有數字,都是從媒體來的

不過三星的LED電視應該是有比當初推出的時候便宜 ... 畢竟通路的價格會比建議售價低

台灣可能賣不掉但是其他地區似乎相當受歡迎 DisplaySearch 或是 iSuupli 都有相關的統計數字 ...

至於明年的量 ... 我也不敢說
不過我聽人說 韓國人 喊出來的目標
依民族個性 可能會想辦法做到
可能等下一次的三星法說會
會有明確的答案

我有在網路上看到幾個銷售專案這樣在衝量,例如三星的 BD player bundle LED TV 賣
或買 大尺寸 LED TV 送 小尺寸 LCD TV

所以事情可能不是你想的那樣
總之,我年初的推估 好像不怎麼準啊 ...